Have your say & ask the experts

Hello all, this is my first post so I thought I would start with something non-controversial (!).  I am child of the CD age as I am now in my mid-30s, and I can see that the ipod age is going to kill off the CD fairly soon.  Now we have DAC units designed to take output from ipods and mobile telephones the writing must be on the wall for the CD.  All the "serious" companies now seem to have bought into ipod compatible stuff in a big way as well.  I guess the record companies would also love to get rid of CDs; think of all the money they would save.  No physical production costs, no storage, no damage, no theft from retailers, and I'm sure the list could go on. 

 So, how many years will it be before the CD goes the way of the LP, a very minority interest medium carried by a few marginal retailers?  I would say ten.  Any thoughts?

I'd agree with you on around ten years until it becomes a specialist minority though this is being directed by the younglings at the moment. I'm not sure the record companies would prefer the download over the physical purchase - it makes it very easy for bands to bypass them and they don't make as much money from a download. What we are seeing now is bands making far more from touring than actual music sales (largely down to file sharing) so if the trend continues we may see albums becoming cheaper and cheaper, the album itself serving as advertisement for the tour.

With us there does seem to be a bandwagon with digital music but I think these files are largely saved onto HDD at home in order to get the music digitally to a DAC (the ipod doesn't have a digital out so as yet can't be used directly with a DAC). I've been using digital music only for a couple of years now and I personally can't imagine retreating back to CD, but we are really at the mercy of the largest demographic - the kids.

True, the kids are driving the growth in downloads, which is a least partially responsible for declining CD sales. How do they listen to their downloads? On their iPods or in their bedrooms through their cheapo PC speakers - mum and dad wouldn't want it any other way. However, these kids are going to grow up, move out and have their own living rooms. Are they going to want to faff about with turning on a PC every time they want to listen to music? Especially when they've got kids of their own taking up their time and getting tangled up in the cables? I suspect that they will buy the usual plasticy midi system from Argos for the living room, which may or may not have a USB or line in. Even if it does, the continued presence of a CD player in almost every house will keep the format alive and mainstream well beyond the next 10 years, I would say.

tractorboy:

I suspect that they will buy the usual plasticy midi system from Argos for the living room, which may or may not have a USB or line in.

There were a couple of really good midi systems made - I had a JVC MX-J850R which was very good, and still is. It's better than the current Yamaha/Denon/Onkyo micro systems and it was cheaper and came with some beasty bookshelf Transmission line speakers with four drivers.

When the kids grow up I'd say it will common for homes to have home servers which can simply feed something like the Squeezebox - like we are doing now, that's where our industry is pushing things forward.

Interesting. I don't foresee mainstream takeup of this type of setup, as the perceived barrier in terms of technology is higher than something which can be plugged in and working within seconds of it being unboxed. I'm not saying that Squeezebox-like systems are difficult to set up or operate, just that they are likely to be perceived as such by the general public.

I think the perceived perception that all people are scared of new technology (techist?) is wrong, what we are talking about here is the kids who have only known the broadband age so by the time they are 20-30 IP's and WAP e.t.c. will be the norm. Add to that new homes may be built with integrated networks, I can't see any problem at all.

Closely related to this topic, when are the big suppliers of digital downloads (I'm looking at you, Apple) going to raise the bit rates to CD quality? Barriers in terms of bandwidth are steadily being eroded, and the increasing size of storage space on iPods and the like make it viable to have your music lossless. The current Classic is 160Gb is it not? Prices have just been slashed, usually the precursor to a new, larger model. What's the point of all this storage space? Video maybe... although I'll wager that this accounts for a relatively small amount of most people's iPod hard drives.

I'd also wager that your average punter (i.e. not the people who frequent this forum!) use only a fraction of their 160Gb.

I'd consider dropping CD purchases only when there is a realistic alternative, rather than poor-quality downloads for prices which compare unfavourably to high-street CD prices.

Octopo:

I think the perceived perception that all people are scared of new technology (techist?) is wrong, what we are talking about here is the kids who have only known the broadband age so by the time they are 20-30 IP's and WAP e.t.c. will be the norm. Add to that new homes may be built with integrated networks, I can't see any problem at all.

True, but the networked home idea has been on the lips of futurologists for some time now... and shows little sign of materialising yet. Tell you what, let's check back in on this thread in 2018, then we'll see who was right. ;-)

This is the major barrier at the moment because people (on these forums) who are swapping to HDD based music have normally already bought the CD in the first place. Higher quality download sites are (slowly) cropping up though and they will only continue to do so - the Linn site for example caters for such a small minority at the moment but if this forum is anything to go by, it can only get bigger.

tractorboy:

However, these kids are going to grow up, move out and have their own living rooms. Are they going to want to faff about with turning on a PC every time they want to listen to music?

These would be the same kids who watch youtube instead of television, use instant message/email instead of the telephone, use iTunes/iPod instead of a radio or cassette player, and who have spent much of their lives using a PC?

When these kids are ready to embrace higher fidelity music it will be the most natural thing in the world for them to use computer/hdd based sources.

Imagine a Sonos system with a Napster subscription providing SACD quality music streaming over cable or BT's forthcoming 21cn broadband and you have a high-fidelity source the equal of anything we have in our homes today with no usability issues whatsoever.

In this household it will be CD and vinyl for good. I've got a Squeezebox but I hardly ever use it, much preferring to play CDs with the proper booklet to hand and the frankly incredible sound quality that a modern player can give. CDs are also pretty cheap these days and you can increase your library of music pretty cheaply and easily.

That said, I think downloads and wireless networks are going to take a stronger hold on the mainstream market, albeit as one part of a multi approach future. Downloaded files have had a pretty bad press due to poor quality MP3s and the number of people who still use illegal torrents and file sharing to download mediocre sounding versions of new releases. However, done properly as in the case of record companies like Chandos and Linn, lossless download formats can sound excellent.

One of the biggest problems for me is that wireless networks are still an absolute pain in the backside and there are still many places where broadband line speeds remain painfully slow due to distance from exchanges.

I think CD has a much longer future than most people suggest. In 10 years I think we'll still be going into HMV and seeing rows and rows of discs and, if I'm being honest, I think the same will be true of DVD. Many people want to enjoy music and movies in the simplest and most accessible ways possible and physical formats are still the best option for this.

ianandyr:

These would be the same kids who watch youtube instead of television, use instant message/email instead of the telephone, use iTunes/iPod instead of a radio or cassette player, and who have spent much of their lives using a PC?

Yup, those are the ones.

ianandyr:

When these kids are ready to embrace higher fidelity music it will be the most natural thing in the world for them to use computer/hdd based sources.

I don't think they're interested in fidelity. Hence the popularity of YouTube and MP3.

ianandyr:

Imagine a Sonos system with a Napster subscription providing SACD quality music streaming over cable or BT's forthcoming 21cn broadband and you have a high-fidelity source the equal of anything we have in our homes today with no usability issues whatsoever.

Most of the people in my office are in their 20s, and have grown up using PCs. When their PC stops talking to the printer, they haven't got a clue what to do. Does it occur to them to check the USB cable is in securely? No. Do they check to see that they have the default printer set correctly? Eh? The what? How do I do that then?

People on this forum tend to be comfortable with technology. I would suggest that the vast majority of the general public, young and old, are not - at least not beyond a very superficial level.

ianandyr:

When these kids are ready to embrace higher fidelity music it will be the most natural thing in the world for them to use computer/hdd based sources.

tractorboy:

I don't think they're interested in fidelity. Hence the popularity of YouTube and MP3.

Then they won't be buying CD players either. Those who are interested in the pursuit of hi-fi (and let's face it we're already in the minority) will be very comfortable with the idea of a HDD/PC source or an Apple TV / Sonos system.

ianandyr:

Imagine a Sonos system with a Napster subscription providing SACD quality music streaming over cable or BT's forthcoming 21cn broadband and you have a high-fidelity source the equal of anything we have in our homes today with no usability issues whatsoever.

tractorboy:

Most of the people in my office are in their 20s, and have grown up using PCs. When their PC stops talking to the printer, they haven't got a clue what to do. Does it occur to them to check the USB cable is in securely? No. Do they check to see that they have the default printer set correctly? Eh? The what? How do I do that then? People on this forum tend to be comfortable with technology. I would suggest that the vast majority of the general public, young and old, are not - at least not beyond a very superficial level.

Your bad luck to be surrounded by such a bunch of incompetents. Where I work pretty much everyone has a home network, mostly wireless, and could have a Sonos up an running in an hour or two.

As far as I see it the major stumbling block here is the availability of high quality downloads/streaming. That will come - the movement toward it is well underway. Then, with album art, lyrics, the convenience of playlists, shuffle, integrated services like Last FM, internet radio and so on the attractions of the little silver disc in its plastic box will become the preserve of an ever increasing minority.

I don't for a minute think that hi-fi is going away, far from it, but I do believe a change is coming in the way we source, store and manage our music.

ianandyr:

Your bad luck to be surrounded by such a bunch of incompetents. Where I work pretty much everyone has a home network, mostly wireless, and could have a Sonos up an running in an hour or two.

Any jobs going at your place?

ianandyr:

As far as I see it the major stumbling block here is the availability of high quality downloads/streaming. That will come - the movement toward it is well underway.

And the sooner the better. I think we can all agree on that!